Diamonds and Dogs

11/11/15

Macy's (M) gets coal in its stocking. Macy's stock is down 14% midday to a multiyear low in a continuing trend for retailers reporting disappointing earnings and lower guidance for the holiday season. Part of the blame for the a disappointing current quarterly numbers is due to the prolonged Indian Summer stifling cool weather merchandise sales along with the strong U.S. dollar hobbling sales from foreign tourists traveling to the U.S . Macy's cut its earnings forecast for the year, ratcheting down its range for adjusted earnings to between $4.20 and $4.30 a share from $4.70-$4.80. The good news for consumers is there may be acceleration in promotional merchandise to move inventory.

Amazon (AMZN) is amazing. Alibaba is getting the press today for its $13 billion in sales in a just one day on singles day in China, but Amazon's stock is one the one retailer that keeps moving higher as consumers shift more sales to the Internet. And even though Amazon's stock has doubled in the last year, Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock today with an $800 price target or 19% current levels. Amazon's is not cheap trading for over 900 times GAAP earnings, but I guess if investors keep buying the stock, who needs to report earnings. Great company, but scary stock.