Day Traders Diary



Stocks look ready to take a breather this morning following four straight record-setting sessions on Wall Street. Futures are pointing towards a modestly lower open, with the S&P 500 futures trading five points, or 0.2%, below fair value. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures are also down 0.2%.

Investors will receive some notable economic data this morning. The July reading of the core PCE Price Index ( consensus +0.2%), which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, will cross the wires at 8:30 AM ET, along with July Personal Income ( consensus +0.4%), July Personal Spending ( consensus +0.4%), and weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 214K).

In Washington, NAFTA negotiations remain in focus as the U.S. and Mexico try to bring Canada onto the bilateral trade deal they reached on Monday. Although there are reportedly a number of tricky issues still to work through, both President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed optimism on Wednesday that a deal could get done by the end of the week.

Looking at other markets, U.S. Treasuries are roughly flat this morning, with the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note unchanged at 2.88%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% at 94.55, trying to end a four-session slide that took the index to a one-month low on Wednesday, and WTI crude futures are up 0.7% at $69.96/bbl.

In U.S. corporate news:

  • Salesforce (CRM 149.60, -5.20): -3.4% after below-consensus guidance for Q3 overshadowed above-consensus Q2 results.
  • Dollar General (DG 104.10, -2.56): -2.5% despite beating both top and bottom line estimates.
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR 89.25, -5.21): -5.5% after reporting worse-than-expected earnings.
  • Campbell Soup (CPB 38.50, -1.49): -3.7% after missing revenue estimates and issuing below-consensus guidance for FY19.
  • Burlington Stores (BURL 157.02, -9.42): -5.7% after below-consensus Q3 guidance overshadowed above-consensus Q2 results.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.9%, China's Shanghai Composite -1.1%, India's Sensex -0.1%.
    • In economic data:
      • Japan's July Retail Sales +1.5% year-over-year (expected 1.2%; last 1.7%)
      • Australia's July Building Approvals -5.2% month-over-month (expected -2.5%; last 6.8%). Q2 Building Capital Expenditure -3.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last -0.9%), Q2 Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure -0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected 1.0%; last 3.6%). Q2 Private New Capital Expenditure -2.5% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; last 1.2%)
      • New Zealand's August ANZ Business Confidence -50.3 (last -44.9). July Building Consents -10.3% month-over-month (last -8.2%)
      • South Korea's September Manufacturing BSI Index 76 (last 74)
      • Hong Kong's July Retail Sales +7.8% year-over-year (last 12.0%)
    • In news:
      • Fitch commented on China, noting that policy easing is not expected to include credit stimulus and that tariffs imposed by the United States should not have a meaningful impact on growth.
      • South Korean press reported that the U.S. and South Korea will hold joint Air Force drills in December.
  • Major European indices trade in negative territory with Spain's IBEX (-0.7%) showing relative weakness for the second consecutive day. France's CAC -0.3%, Germany's DAX -0.4%, UK's FTSE -0.6%.
    • In economic data:
      • Eurozone August Business and Consumer Survey 111.6 (expected 111.9; last 112.1)
      • UK's July Mortgage Approvals 64,770 (expected 65,000; last 65,370) and July Mortgage Lending GBP3.20 billion (expected GBP3.90 billion; last GBP3.85 billion). July Net Lending to Individuals GBP4.00 billion (expected GBP5.50 billion; last GBP5.40 billion)
      • Germany's July Import Price Index -0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.0%; last 0.5%); +5.0% year-over-year (expected 5.2%; last 4.8%). August Unemployment Change -8,000, as expected (last -6,000) and August Unemployment Rate 5.2%, as expected (last 5.2%)
      • Spain's August CPI +0.2% month-over-month, as expected (last -0.7%); +2.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 2.2%). August Business Confidence -4.3 (last -2.1)
      • Swiss August KOF Leading Indicators 100.3 (expected 101.1; last 101.7)
    • In news:
      • It has been reported that Spain's government is seeking to raise taxes on top wage earners.
      • French President Emmanuel Macron will reportedly push European leaders to accept a Brexit deal due to fears that a no-deal Brexit would "poison relations" between European countries.
      • Italy's Deputy Prime Minister refuted yesterday's report about the country's government seeking a new round of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, saying Italy is not seeking anyone's help.
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