Day Traders Diary

12/14/16

It's Fed day and U.S. equity futures are little changed in anticipation of today's FOMC Policy Statement and press conference. Action is likely to remain subdued ahead of the Fed release.

Market participants are pretty much fully expecting the FOMC to raise the target range for the fed funds rate at today's meeting. The source of uncertainty -- and the potential for market-moving action -- is rooted primarily in Fed Chair Yellen's explanation of the Fed's updated economic projections and so-called "dot plot."

The FOMC Policy Decision will be made public at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Yellen's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Crude oil is down 1.5% this morning to $52.19/bbl.

The U.S. 10-yr Treasury note has seen an uptick, as its yield has fallen four basis points to 2.44%.

November Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and November PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) will cross the wires at 8:30 ET. November Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 75.1%) will be reported at 9:15 ET while October Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

• General Motors (GM 36.90, -0.46):-1.2% and Ford Motors (F 12.61, -0.16):-1.3% after reports indicated that China plans to fine an unnamed US automaker for alleged monopolistic behavior. 
• Wells Fargo (WFC 55.20, -0.64) -1.2% after regulators determined that the company's 'living wills' were not up to standards. The bank will be sanctioned.

• Equity indices across the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei unch, Hong Kong's Hang Seng unch, China's Shanghai Composite -0.5%, India's Sensex -0.4%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's New Loans CNY794.60 billion (expected CNY720.00 billion; last CNY651.30 billion). Outstanding Loan Growth +13.1% year-over-year (consensus 13.0%; previous 13.1%). M2 Money Stock +11.4% year-over-year (consensus 11.5%; previous 11.6%)
    • Japan's November Industrial Production 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.0%). Q4 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 18 (expected 19; last 18) and Q4 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 10, as expected (last 6). Q4 Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX +5.5% (expected 6.1%; last 6.3%)
    • India's November WPI Inflation 3.15% year-over-year (consensus 3.10%; last 3.39%)
    • Australia's December Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.9% (last -1.1%)
    • South Korea's November Unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% from 3.7%
  • In news:
    • According to Nikkei, the Japanese government will forecast fiscal-year 2017/2018 GDP at 1.5%.
    • In China, the Insurance Regulatory Commission lowered the equity exposure limit for insurers to 30.0% from 40.0% of total investments.
• Major European indices trade on a modestly lower note. France's CAC -0.4%, Germany's DAX -0.2%, UK's FTSE -0.1%, Italy's MIB -0.2%. 
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone October Industrial Production -0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.9%); +0.6% year-over-year (consensus 0.8%; last 1.3%)
    • UK's October Unemployment Rate held at 4.8%, as expected. October Average Earnings Index + Bonus 2.5% (expected 2.3%; last 2.4%). November Claimant Count Change 2,400 (expected 5,500; last 13,300).
    • France's November CPI 0.0% month-over-month, as expected (last 0.0%)
    • Italy's December CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%); 0.0% year-over-year (consensus 0.1%; last 0.1%)
    • Swiss November PPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%); -0.6% year-over-year (last -0.2%). December ZEW Expectations 12.9 (last 8.9)
  • In news:
    • Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni won a confidence vote in the Lower House and pledged to support banks. Mr. Gentiloni will face a Senate confidence vote today.