Day Traders Diary

5/11/16

The stock market ended its day broadly lower as weaker-than-expected earnings and guidance weighed on retail names and the broader consumer discretionary sector (-2.0%). Other focal points of today's action included an upswing in oil, weakness in the dollar, a broken support (2074/76) level in the S&P 500 (-1.0%), and the underperformance of the heavily-weighted health care (-1.3%) and financial (-1.1%) sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.2%) finished behind the benchmark index (-1.0%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%).

Equity indices began under pressure as weaker than expected earnings results and guidance from the likes of Walt Disney (DIS 102.29, -4.31), Macy's (M 31.38, -5.61) and Fossil (FOSL 28.44, -11.66) dampened investor sentiment. However, the major averages ticked off their opening lows ahead of the Department of Energy's weekly stockpile report.

The inventory data came in above consensus with larger-than-expected draws in crude oil (-3.41 million barrels; est. +0.71 million) and gasoline (-1.23 million barrels; est. -0.71 million) stockpiles. In response, the energy component jumped off the $44.20/bbl level, bringing the broader market with it. However, the upswing in equities would prove to be short-lived. The benchmark index fell back to its morning low and continued to test support at 2074/76. The benchmark index would break that support in afternoon trade.

The major averages ended near their lows with nine sectors finishing in negative territory. The heavily-weighted consumer discretionary (-2.0%), health care (-1.3%), and financial (-1.1%) sectors rounded out the board while the remaining decliners ended with losses between 0.1% (energy) and 0.7% (industrials).

Retail names ended with the largest losses in the consumer discretionary space (-2.0%). Macy's (M 31.38, -5.61) and Fossil (FOSL 28.44, -11.66) led the group lower following disappointing results and guidance. The two names surrendered 15.2% and 29.1%, respectively. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 41.72, -1.94) lost 4.4% as it traded lower in sympathy with the names. Elsewhere, Kohl's (KSS 38.70, -2.48) and Nordstrom (JWN 45.43, -3.43) underperformed ahead of tomorrow's quarterly reports.

In the health care space (-1.3%) biotechnology demonstrated relative weakness, evidenced by the 3.0% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 256.10, -7.95). The ETF trimmed its weekly gain to 0.3%, compared to the 0.2% loss in the broader sector.

Real estate investment trusts underperformed in the financial sector (-1.1%). In the sub-group, Macerich (MAC 77.64, -3.78) and Simon Properties (SPG 203.24, -1068) fell 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively.

The commodity-sensitive energy space (-0.1%) fell beneath its flat line in the final hour as the broader sector erased a 0.7% gain. Independent oil and gas names ended with the largest gains as ConocoPhillips (COP 43.68, +0.81) and Devon Energy (DVN 32.54, +1.00) gained a respective 1.9% and 3.2%. WTI crude ended its pit session higher by 3.4% at $46.20/bbl.

The U.S. Dollar Index (93.82, -0.40) ended off its low as the greenback pared losses against the yen and the euro. The euro/dollar pair finished higher by 0.5% at 1.1423 while losing 0.8% against the yen (108.44).

The Treasury complex ended off its high with the yield on the 10-yr note falling three basis points to 1.73%.

Today's participation was above the recent average as more than 922 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Today's data included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index and the Treasury Budget for April:

The MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4%. This compares to last week's reading of -3.4%.

Bolstered by individual tax receipts, the Treasury Budget for April showed a surplus of $106.5 billion; however, that was much less than the surplus of $156.7 billion seen in the same period a year ago.

The Treasury data are not seasonally adjusted, so the April surplus cannot be compared to the March deficit of $108.0 billion.

Total receipts in April were $438 billion while total outlays were $332 billion.

Receipts were $33 billion less than receipts in April 2015. A large portion of that difference can be attributed to a lower level of individual tax receipts this year ($266 billion) versus last year ($288 billion). Total outlays, meanwhile, were $17 billion more than last year.

The 12-month deficit is $510.9 billion versus $460.6 billion in March.

Tomorrow morning the Bank of England will announce its latest policy decision at 7:00 ET.

On the home front, tomorrow's economic data will be limited to weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 270k) and Import and Export Prices for April, which will all be released at 8:30 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -4.9% YTD

Russell 2000 -1.9% YTD

S&P 500 +1.0% YTD

Dow Jones +1.6% YTD