Day Traders Diary
2/26/14
U.S. Equities·Equity futures point to solid gains at the open
·The S&P 500 failed to post a record-high close for the second straight day despite threatening the mark for most of the day
·The Nasdaq looks likely to open at its best level in nearly 15 years
·MBA Mortgage Apps sank -8.5% versus the prior week
o S&P futures +3 @ 1849
o Dow Futures +23 @ 16,210
o Nasdaq Futures +7 @ 3696
Asia
·Markets across Asia ended mostly higher
·Hong Kong's GDP grew 3.0% YoY (3.1% YoY expected)
·Australia's construction work done (-1.0% QoQ actual v. 0.4% QoQ expected) fell short of estimates
·Singapore's industrial production missed expectations with a 3.9% YoY print (6.8% YoY expected)
Japan's Nikkei (-0.5%) slipped off four-week highs
·Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.5%) gained for the first time in four days
·China's Shanghai Composite (+0.4%) advanced for the first time in five sessions
·India's Sensex (+0.7%) rallied to a one-month high
·Australia's ASX (+0.1%) closed little changed as action hovers at its best level in over five years
Europe
·The major European bourses are lower.
·Germany's DAX (-0.4%) sports modest losses despite the better than expected GfK German Consumer Climate (8.5 actual v. 8.3 expected, 8.3 previous)
·Italy's MIB (-0.1%) outperforms after newly appointed Prime Minister Matteo Renzi won a confidence vote in the Lower House
Today's 30y German Bund went uncovered, making it the second uncovered auction in a week. Demand fell short of the EUR3 bln maximum as the auction attracted EUR2.79 bln worth of bids while drawing 2.53% (2.64% previous) and a 1.1x bid/cover. Yields are little changed across the German curve with the 10y stuck @ 1.650%
Treasuries
· Treasuries hold slim losses
·A +1bp advance has the 10y @ 2.710%
Fx
·EURUSD presses session lows, -35 pips @ 1.3710
·USDJPY trades on the highs, +15 pips @ 102.40
·AUDUSD is off -55 pips @ .8965 as action tests support in the area
·Risk pairs are offered with EURJPY -10 pips @ 140.40 and AUDJPY -30 pips @ 91.80
·EM is weaker with ZAR -1% @ 10.828 and TRY -0.6% @ 2.224
·Ukraine's hryvnia (UAH) is -6% @ 9.700, a record low
Commodities
·Precious metals hold near the lows with gold -$9 @ $1334 and silver -$0.34 @ $21.62
·Crude oil sits just off the highs, +$0.55 @ $102.38
·Natural gas is down -4.5% @ $4.869
Earnings/Guidance
·Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beats by $0.29, misses on revs; Q4 comps in-line; guides FY15 EPS in-line
·AES (AES) reports EPS in-line; guides FY14 EPS in-line
·Chesapeake Energy (CHK) misses by $0.12, beats on revs; Q4 daily production +2% YoY
·Dollar Tree (DLTR) misses by $0.04, misses on revs; guides Q1 and FY15 below consensus
·Edison (EIX) beats by $0.13, beats on revs
·First Solar (FSLR) misses by $0.10, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY14 revs in-line
·Lowe's (LOW) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY15 EPS below consensus, revs ~in-line; adds $5 bln to buyback
·QEP Resources (QEP) misses by $0.24, misses on revs
·Range Resources (RRC) beats by $0.02, misses on revs
·SodaStream (SODA) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY14 revs slightly below consensus
·Target (TGT) reports Q4 in-line with Jan 10 preannouncement; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY15 EPS below consensus
News
·Apple (AAPL) has said e book ruling violated antitrust rules, according to reports
·Bank of America (BAC) disclosed last night U.S. Attorney's office for the Eastern District of New York is conducting an investigation; FIRREA contemplates civil monetary penalties as high as $1.1 mln per violation
·Warren Buffett (BRK.B) plans to modify terms of Bank of America (BAC) investment, according to reports
·Boeing (BA) awarded ~$2.07 bln Navy contract modification
·Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Biosense Webster receives FDA approval for its THERMOCOOL SMARTTOUCH Catheter
Syndicate
·Active Power (ACPW) announces proposed public offering of common stock; size not disclosed
·Allete (ALE) announces offering of 2.5 mln shares of common stock
·Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) announces public offering of $200 million of senior unsecured notes; commences cash tender offer for any and all of its outstanding 8.250% Senior Notes due 2017
·Infinity Pharmaceutical (INFI) files for 1 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders
·Lennar (LEN) prices $100 mln of 4.50% Senior Notes due June 2019
·LyondellBasell (LB) prices public offering of $1 bln in 4.875% guaranteed notes due 2044
·Neurocrine Biosci (NBIX) announces proposed public offering of 7 mln shares of common stock
·Regal Entertainment (RGC) announces pricing of $775 mln of 5.75% Senior Notes due 2022
IPOs
·Diamond S Shipping (DSG) announces launch of its 14 mln common share IPO; price expected to be between $14-16 per share
Analyst Actions
· Upgrades
o EOG Resources (EOG) target raised to $206 at RBC Capital Mkts
o Masco (MAS) upgraded to Hold from Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
o Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
o Range Resources (RRC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein
o Teradata (TDC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
·Downgrades
o Humana (HUM) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
o Juniper Networks (JNPR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
o Safeway (SWY) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
·Initiations/Resumptions
o Covidien (COV) initiated with a Buy at CRT Capital
Technical Factors
·The S&P had lost some momentum on Monday after setting a new all time intraday high and while it did finish the session in the red, pressure was limited as it merely dipped two points and formed a neutral inside day (lower high, higher low).
·In order to improve the very short term bias to positive from neutral it will need to initially work back through 1848 and then 1852/1854.
·Congestion and the low mark first support (1842/1840) with a more important zone at 1836/1835 (low of Monday's all time high bar/congest).
Looking Ahead
·New home sales will cross at 10am ET
·Treasury will auction $35B 5y notes
·LB, JCP, RIG, DK, ANW, BIDU, QUAD, TEG, GEF, RNDY, CLR, BWC are among the names to release their quarterly reports following today's closing bell while BBY, SHLD, TD, KSS, CTRX, SRE, WNR, CORE, HLT, VRX, MYL, HII, WIN, LKQ, YRCW highlight the reports due out ahead of tomorrow's open.
European Markets Update: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.5%
Core European indices trade lower across the board. Participants received several economic data points at the start of the trading day. Germany's GfK Consumer Climate ticked up to 8.5 from 8.3 (8.2 expected). Great Britain's Q4 GDP was left unchanged at 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, but the year-over-year reading was revised down to 2.7% from 2.8% (2.8% expected). Separately, Business Investment rose 2.4% quarter-over-quarter (2.6% consensus, 2.0% prior). Elsewhere, Italy's wage inflation came in at 0.6% month-over-month (0.0% prior) and Norway's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.5% (3.5% consensus).
In news, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Ian McCafferty said the current pound strength is not a major problem for exporters, but he would be concerned if the currency continues climbing. Since the start of the year, the pound has appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar.
·Germany's DAX is lower by 0.5%. Lanxess leads the decline with a loss of 3.4% after reporting disappointing results. Utilities also lag with E.ON and RWE both down near 2.0%.
·Great Britain's FTSE holds a loss of 0.5%. Food retailer Tesco underperforms with a loss of 4.2% in reaction to analyst comments. On the upside, industrial equipment manufacturer Weir Group is higher by 6.9% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
·In France, the CAC trades down 0.5%. Consumer names lag with L'Oreal and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton down 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively.
·Also of note, Italy's MIB (-0.3%) and Spain's IBEX (-0.3%) have slipped to lows after displaying slim gains earlier.
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